Musings on Technology
A personal collection of notes, reflections, and essays on technology, finance, and building — written over the years as I made sense of the ideas shaping our industry.
What I Learned in 2019 — And Where I Was Wrong
A year-end review of my 2019 predictions. DeFi exceeded expectations. Institutional adoption was slower than hoped. Libra changed the conversation more than the technology. And the halving narrative proved more powerful than fundamentals — again.
Ethereum 2.0: The Beacon Chain and the Long Road Ahead
Ethereum 2.0's Beacon Chain is approaching launch — the first phase of a multi-year transition to Proof of Stake. The technical ambition is extraordinary. So is the execution risk. What the Beacon Chain means for Ethereum, DeFi, and the broader ecosystem.
Libra Loses Its Coalition — And That's the Real Story
Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and others have withdrawn from the Libra Association. The departures reveal something important: the regulatory and political resistance to private digital currencies is far stronger than Facebook anticipated.
China's Blockchain Pivot: What Xi Jinping's Endorsement Means
Xi Jinping declared blockchain a core technology for China's future. Bitcoin surged 40% in a day. But China's blockchain vision is not crypto's blockchain vision — it is state-controlled infrastructure for surveillance, efficiency, and geopolitical competition.
Bakkt Launches and Disappoints — Why That's Fine
Bakkt's physically-settled Bitcoin futures launched to underwhelming volume. The market was disappointed. But institutional infrastructure does not succeed on day one — it succeeds by existing, by building credibility, and by providing the plumbing that enables future flows.
The Privacy Debate in Crypto Is Far from Settled
Public blockchains are radically transparent — every transaction visible to anyone. Privacy coins and zero-knowledge proofs offer alternatives, but they face regulatory headwinds. The tension between transparency and privacy will define the next chapter of crypto regulation.
DeFi Yield Is Real — But So Are the Risks
DeFi lending rates are attracting serious capital. Compound, dYdX, and MakerDAO are generating real yield from real economic activity. But the risks — smart contract vulnerabilities, oracle failures, and liquidity crises — are equally real and poorly understood.
Central Bank Digital Currencies: The Sovereign Response
Libra forced the conversation. Now central banks are accelerating CBDC research. China's digital yuan is furthest along. The question is no longer whether sovereign digital currencies will exist, but what form they will take — and what they mean for crypto.
Facebook Libra: The Most Important Crypto Event of 2019
Facebook announced Libra — a global digital currency backed by a basket of fiat currencies and governed by a consortium of major corporations. It is the most significant validation of the crypto thesis to date, and the most significant threat to crypto's vision of decentralisation.
The FATF Travel Rule and What It Means for Crypto
The Financial Action Task Force has extended the 'travel rule' to crypto — requiring exchanges to share sender and receiver information for transactions above a threshold. It is the most significant regulatory development of 2019, and the industry is not ready.