Musings on Technology
A personal collection of notes, reflections, and essays on technology, finance, and building — written over the years as I made sense of the ideas shaping our industry.
Looking Ahead to 2019: The Year of Infrastructure
2017 was hype. 2018 was reckoning. 2019 will be infrastructure. The projects, protocols, and institutions that emerge from the bear market will define the next decade of digital finance.
What I Got Right and Wrong in 2018
A year-end review of my predictions and beliefs. I was right about the bear market, institutional infrastructure, and stablecoin growth. I was wrong about timelines, the resilience of bad projects, and how long the market would take to clear.
The SEC Framework Is Coming — and That's Good
After a year of enforcement actions and ambiguous guidance, the SEC is signaling a more structured approach to digital assets. Clarity — even restrictive clarity — is better than uncertainty for builders and investors alike.
Bitcoin Drops Below $4,000 — What I Still Believe
Bitcoin is now below $4,000 — an 80% drawdown from its peak. The temptation is to declare the experiment over. But the infrastructure thesis hasn't changed. What's changed is the market's mood, not the technology's trajectory.
The Stablecoin Wars: USDC, Dai, and the Fight for Trust
Stablecoins are no longer a niche. USDC launched with Circle and Coinbase backing. Dai is proving itself in a bear market. The competition is not just about pegs — it's about which trust model wins: regulated reserves or decentralized collateral.
The Real Competition Is Not Between Blockchains
Crypto Twitter loves 'chain wars.' But the real competition isn't Ethereum vs EOS vs Cardano. It's open financial infrastructure vs the status quo. If crypto spends its energy on internal battles, it loses the bigger fight.
MakerDAO and the First Real Test of DeFi
MakerDAO's Dai stablecoin is the most ambitious experiment in decentralized finance. It's also the most exposed. If Dai can maintain its peg through a prolonged bear market, it validates a new model. If it can't, DeFi has a credibility problem.
Fidelity Enters Crypto: What It Means for Institutional Adoption
Fidelity launching a digital assets division is not just another headline. It's a signal that institutional infrastructure is being built by incumbents — not just startups. When a $7 trillion asset manager moves, the plumbing follows.
Smart Contract Audits Are Not Enough
The industry treats audits as a stamp of safety. In reality, an audit is a point-in-time review with limited scope. Real smart contract security requires defense in depth: formal verification, bug bounties, upgradeability, and operational monitoring.
Crypto Winter Is Here — What Survives?
Bitcoin is down 70% from its peak. Altcoins are down 90%. The term 'crypto winter' has arrived. But winters are not endings — they are filters. The question is what emerges on the other side.