Trump Wins and Crypto Policy Pivots

Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election with a platform that included the most explicitly pro-crypto positions ever taken by a major party candidate. He promised to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one. He proposed creating a strategic national Bitcoin reserve. He pledged to end the regulatory hostility that has characterised the Biden administration's approach to crypto. And he positioned the United States as the future "crypto capital of the world."

Bitcoin surged past $75,000 on election night and continued climbing in the days that followed. The market is pricing in a fundamental shift in the US regulatory environment — from adversarial to supportive.

What Changes

The most immediate change will be at the SEC. Gary Gensler's departure — whether through firing or resignation — will end the regulation-by-enforcement approach that has defined the past four years. The SEC's lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance, and others will likely be settled or dropped. And the agency's posture toward crypto will shift from hostility to engagement.

The broader regulatory landscape will also shift. The appointment of crypto-friendly officials to key positions — the SEC, CFTC, Treasury, and OCC — will create a more permissive environment for crypto innovation. Stablecoin legislation, which has stalled under the current administration, is likely to advance. And the proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve — while ambitious — signals a level of government engagement with crypto that was unimaginable four years ago.

The Crypto Political Machine

The election also validated the crypto industry's political investment. Crypto-focused PACs — Fairshake, Stand With Crypto, and others — spent over $130 million in the 2024 election cycle, making crypto one of the largest corporate political spenders. The investment paid off: pro-crypto candidates won in key races across both parties, creating a bipartisan coalition in Congress that supports crypto-friendly legislation.

The political machine that the crypto industry built in response to the infrastructure bill fight in 2021 has matured into one of the most effective lobbying operations in Washington. The lesson is clear: political engagement works, and the industry's willingness to invest in political infrastructure has produced tangible policy outcomes.

The Risks

The risks of a pro-crypto administration are less obvious but real. Deregulation without guardrails could enable the same kind of fraud and mismanagement that produced FTX. A strategic Bitcoin reserve raises complex questions about government involvement in crypto markets. And the politicisation of crypto — with one party explicitly pro-crypto and the other implicitly sceptical — creates risks if the political winds shift in future elections.

The industry must use this window of regulatory support wisely — pushing for clear, durable frameworks that will survive changes in administration, rather than relying on executive actions that can be reversed by the next president.

My View

The Trump victory is the most significant political event for crypto since Bitcoin's creation. It transforms the US regulatory environment from the industry's biggest headwind to its biggest tailwind. The capital, talent, and innovation that have been leaving the US for more crypto-friendly jurisdictions will begin flowing back.

But political support is not a substitute for good governance, transparent operations, and genuine utility. The industry must use this opportunity to build the regulatory frameworks, the institutional infrastructure, and the consumer protections that will make crypto's integration into the financial system permanent — regardless of who occupies the White House.

Political support is a window, not a foundation. The crypto industry must use this window to build durable frameworks — legislation, not executive orders; institutions, not personalities. The opportunity is enormous. The responsibility to use it wisely is equally so.